February 7, 2014—Market research firm Lux Research estimates that the market for LED light fixtures will grow 12 fold from $2 billion today to as much as $25 billion in 2023. This compound annual growth rate of 25 percent will be driven by the rapidly falling cost of LED lighting and improved efficiencies. The Lux Research report includes adoption rates of LEDs in end markets including office, industrial and street lighting.
According to their report, “Casting the Light: Illuminating the Opportunities in 2023's LED Luminaire Market,” recessed modular lighting will be the largest luminaire market as LEDs take over traditional existing technologies such as incandescent and fluorescent lighting. The recessed modular luminaire market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion to $14.5 billion in the next decade.
The report also predicted that secondary optics, drivers and components will experience massive growth by association. Opportunities for growth in the secondary optics market will dwarf those in the LED package market, growing to $6.9 billion in 2012. The drivers market will reach $4.9 billion.
Increasing efficiencies and falling package costs will affect the adoption of emerging technologies, including alternating current (AC) LEDs, which will find a niche in low-power lighting such as recessed modular luminaires.