April 26, 2013—The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to continue its sluggishness in module revenues through 2013 and 2014, but will resume growth starting in 2015, according to the 2013 NPD Solarbuzz Marketbuzz report. The report predicts module supplier revenues will decline 20 percent from $25.5 billion in 2012 to $20.5 billion in 2013. Module revenues are expected to be stronger in 2015, reaching $32 billion by 2017.

The solar PV industry experienced a sharp decline in 2012, in part due to the reduction in incentive schemes and government feed-in-tariff programs. As end-market demand tapered, companies that continued to ramp up inventory were left with overstock, driving average selling prices down approximately 50 percent Y/Y. This mismatch placed extreme pressure on the solar PV manufacturing sector, which had expanded its capacity during 2010 and 2011 to potentially supply 45 GW to an end-market that reached only 29 GW in 2012.

“Manufacturing over-capacity and declining revenues had a dramatic impact on the PV industry in 2012, and this trend will continue during 2013,” said Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz.